DTN Closing Cotton            07/11 13:35

   Cotton Ends With Stunned Silence

   USDA dramatically upped the 2025 cotton crop to the "level of disbelief" 
among the trading community.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   USDA dramatically upped the 2025 cotton crop to the "level of disbelief" 
among the trading community. Later today, the CFTC will update its trader's 
positions.

   USDA updated its supply-demand tables via its July WASDE today with the 
following calculations:

   "The July U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2025/26 shows higher production and 
ending stocks, lower beginning stocks, and unchanged consumption and imports 
compared to last month. Planted area is raised to 10.12 million acres based on 
the NASS June Acreage report. Harvested area is increased 6 percent to 8.66 
million acres, reflecting higher planted area along with lower abandonment in 
the Southwest that is partially offset by higher abandonment in the Southeast. 
The national average yield for 2025/26 is lowered 1 percent to 809 pounds per 
harvested acre as the reduced abandonment in the Southwest results in the 
harvest of more lower-yielding dryland acres. With the increase in harvested 
area exceeding the yield reduction, the production forecast increased 600,000 
bales from June's projection to 14.60 million, and up from 14.41 million last 
year. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are reduced 300,000 bales following a 
corresponding increase in projected exports for 2024/25. These revisions result 
in 2025/26 ending stocks of 4.60 million bales, up 300,000 from last month, for 
a stocks-to-use ratio of 32.4 percent. The projected season-average upland 
price for 2025/26 is unchanged this month at 62 cents per pound. For the 
2025/26 world cotton balance sheet, production, consumption, and ending stocks 
are raised while trade and beginning stocks are reduced. World production has 
increased 1.43 million bales as China's crop is raised 1 million bales, the 
U.S. crop is raised 600,000 bales and Mexico's crop is raised 100,000 bales, 
partially offset by reductions for Pakistan and Egypt. Global consumption is 
raised 365,000 bales with increases for Pakistan and Mexico partially offset by 
reductions for Italy and Germany. Global exports are lowered 100,000 bales. 
Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are reduced 510,000 bales, reflecting reductions 
in the United States and China and small changes elsewhere. However, ending 
stocks for 2025/26 are increased by 520,000 bales as higher production more 
than offsets the increase in consumption and decline in beginning stocks".

   Also, this afternoon at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitment 
of Traders standing. Last week, the managed-money funds bought-in some 5,175 
positions, reducing their net-short carry to 42,910 contracts.

   The 6- to 10-day weather outlook (July 16-20) shows most of West Texas with 
below-normal temperatures, while the Delta and the Southeast should see 
slightly above-normal readings. Rain-wise, Texas will have much-above normal 
chances, while the Delta and the Southeast will experience slightly 
above-normal precipitation opportunities.

   For the week, December cotton was down 106 points; for the month it was off 
72 points; and thus far for the year, it's minus 229 points.

   For Friday, December 2025 closed at 67.42 cents, minus 31 points; while 
March 2026 settled at 68.75 cents, off 39 points. Friday's estimated volume was 
25,562 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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