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DTN Closing Cotton            04/13 13:46

   Cotton Holds Gains, Ends Higher

   After several wobbly intrasession moves, the cotton market did manage to 
higher close Tuesday.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   After several wobbly intrasession moves, the cotton market did manage to 
higher close Tuesday. Volume of an estimated 67,075 contracts, which was not as 
steep as Monday's volume, was a supportive amount.

   Overall, the market is coming to obvious terms with its two crop years. 
Old-crop May cotton has eight days until its notice period (delivery), vehicle 
new-crop December is just underway. Although the widespread fundamentals of 
weather, supply-demand, the U.S. dollar, and souring Chinese relations 
generally affect the entire complex, some carry a greater emphasis on one crop 
year over the other.

   Thursday, USDA will issue its latest export-sale amounts. As current season 
sales stand, they are 104% of the government's original target. Thus, if 
additional bullish weekly sales are done, then the government may be forced to 
hike exports another 250,000 bales, perhaps to 16.00 million.

   The U.S. dollar was lower Tuesday as traders took profits from its recent 
rally. The market originally bottomed in January as fear of rising interests 
over too much government stimulus rallied prices. Recently, the dollar has 
posted a four-month high. 

   Tuesday, May cotton closed at 81.82 cents, up 1.68 cents, July settled at 
83.19 cents, plus 1.68 cents and December ended at 81.46 cents, up 1.02 cents; 
estimated volume was 67,075 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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