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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          11/25 08:50

   Cotton Trades Flat, Thanksgiving Ahead

   Overnight the cotton market is holding its own after its steep recovery 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   Overnight the cotton market is holding its own after its steep recovery 
Tuesday. At one time on Monday, the market was off well over two-hundred 
points. Much of the selling came from holiday-exiting speculators and 
producers. However, as the Dow Jones surged to new all-time highs, plus the 
drop in the U.S. dollar, March cotton's lower close left a bearish taste in the 
mouths of some traders.

   Besides its adequate supply, the cotton market is concerned with spiking 
COVID-19 cases and their possible effect on the U.S. economy going forward. 
There are several technical indicators giving off bearish signals.

   Current weather forecasts indicate heavy rainfall from eastern Texas and 
across Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. The rest of the Delta and Southeast 
are subject to rain, just not as intense. This rain may potentially cause some 
harvest delays, but so far that has not been the case. As of Sunday, 77% of the 
crop was harvested, which was right in line with the 10-year average.

   There were 51 deliveries placed against the spot December contract 
overnight. The notices were issued by Term (46), Marex (2), and JP Morgan (3). 
All were stopped by Societe General. Currently some 245 notices have been 
issued or re-tendered during the delivery process. The market will be closed 
tomorrow in observance of Thanksgiving and will only trade an abbreviated 
session on Friday from 8 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. EST. Weekly export sales, delayed by 
the holiday, will be released on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EST.

   For Wednesday, support for March cotton stands at 72.20 cents and 71.85 
cents, with resistance at 73.85 cents and 74.10 cents. The overnight estimated 
volume is 4,102 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.

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