DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          01/12 07:17

   Cotton Up, Readies For WASDE

   The cotton market is somewhat higher Monday as traders await the January 
WASDE.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is somewhat higher Monday as traders await the January 
WASDE. Reportedly, USDA will present final 2025 numbers. In addition, the 
precious metals are off "into the wild blue yonder" Monday morning. Both gold 
and silver are posting all-time new highs.

   Last Friday, the CFTC issued its updated Commitment-of-Traders Report. Its 
data showed that the managed-money-funds "repurchased" some 1300 positions, 
reducing their net short carry to 47,772 contracts. For context, their record 
bearish position exceeded 81,000 contracts.

   For Monday's January WASDE, trade expectation for U.S. 2025/2026 cotton 
production is 14.20 million bales (range 13.77-14.55 million), which would be 
0.07 million less from the December update. Exports are expected at 12.04 
million bales (range 11.80-12.20 million), down 0.16 million, and ending stocks 
are expected at 4.56 million (4.20-4.80 million) up 0.06 million. World 
production is expected to come in around 119.46 million bales (range 
118.80-120.00 million), down 0.33 million from December. Consumption is 
expected at 118.57 million, down 0.04 million, and ending stocks are expected 
at 75.62 million bales, down 0.35 million.

   There are several key economic reports this week, including Tuesday's CPI 
(consumer inflation), Wednesday's PPI (wholesale inflation), and Thursday's 
weekly exports-sales and retail sales. The Fed will be assessing the data for 
future interest rate considerations. 

   Chart support for March Cotton stands at 64.25 cents and 63.85 cents, with 
resistance hovering about 65.15 cents and 65.75 cents. Monday morning's 
estimated opening volume is 8,105 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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