DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          07/03 07:41

   Cotton in Holiday Mode

   The cotton market is steady Thursday morning, as many traders have taken an 
early leave for the Independence Day holiday. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is steady Thursday morning, as many traders have taken an 
early leave for the Independence Day holiday. However, before this week's final 
bell, traders will see jobs data and fresh export sales.

   USDA just issued its weekly export sales report with the following numbers:

   "Net sales of Upland totaling 23,700 RB for 2024/2025 were down 13 percent 
from the previous week and 66 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases 
primarily for Vietnam (19,600 RB, including 500 RB switched from South Korea 
and 100 RB switched from Hong Kong), Bangladesh (17,200 RB, including decreases 
of 500 RB), Pakistan (8,500 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), India (7,200 
RB), and Mexico (3,700 RB), were offset by reductions primarily for Turkey 
(41,100 RB), South Korea (400 RB), China (400 RB), Ecuador (100 RB), and Hong 
Kong (100 RB). Net sales of 106,600 RB for 2025/2026 primarily for Mexico 
(50,600 RB), Vietnam (30,800 RB), Malaysia (22,000 RB), and Peru (2,100 RB), 
were offset by reductions for Honduras (400 RB). Exports of 255,800 RB were up 
39 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (65,000 RB), Pakistan (38,700 RB), 
Turkey (34,100 RB), Bangladesh (30,600 RB), and Mexico (14,600 RB). Net sales 
reductions of Pima totaling 200 RB for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the 
previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for India 
(200 RB, including decreases of 900 RB) and Indonesia (200 RB, including 100 RB 
switched from Japan), were more than offset by reductions for Peru (400 RB) and 
Japan (200 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 6,300 RB for 2025/2026 were reported 
for India (5,400 RB) and Pakistan (900 RB). Exports of 10,900 RB were up 37 
percent from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
The destinations were primarily to India (5,700 RB), Vietnam (2,300 RB), 
Thailand (1,000 RB), Egypt (900 RB), and Bangladesh (400 RB)."

   The Labor Department just released its monthly jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls 
were expected to increase 110,000 in June according to consensus estimates, but 
today's number was 147,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate was forecast to rise 
to 4.3%.

   July cotton is in delivery, and there were zero notices tendered. Thus far 
there have been a total of 226 notices tendered. The period ends on July 9.

   The cotton market will be closed on Friday in observance of Independence 
Day. The ICE Futures will reopen at 8 a.m. EDT Monday.

   Daily chart support for December cotton stands at 68.00 cents and 67.40 
cents, with resistance at 69.00 cents and 69.50 cents. Thursday morning's 
estimated volume is 6,590 contracts. 

    

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.